[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rebound Sharply on September 25 as US Officially Reduces Auto Tariffs on EU to 15%

SMM Nickel September 25 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US released the official document of the tariff agreement with the EU. The US formally lowered tariffs on EU automobiles to 15%, effective from August 1, 2025.

(2) This year's FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, warned against a series of interest rate cuts, stating he still has concerns about inflation and is unwilling to support a rate cut at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believes economic growth, the labor market, etc., are slowing down, while inflation is lower than expected, suggesting further interest rate cuts might be appropriate.

Spot Market:

On September 25, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 122,700-125,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,050 yuan/mt, up 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,200-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) opened at 121,900 yuan/mt, hit a high of 123,550 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed at 122,990 yuan/mt, a gain of 1.08%.

The world's second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, entered a state of force majeure due to a mudslide, sparking market concerns about tightening metal supplies. Although this event does not directly involve nickel, it transmitted to the entire base metal market, indirectly boosting nickel prices. Nickel prices rebounded in the short term but have limited upside potential, and the market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. The reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.